These included some big upsets: Republicans held every vulnerable seat in Texas, picked up four Biden/Clinton-won seats in California and even picked up two Miami area seats Clinton had carried by more than 15 points in 2016. Democrats' genuinely progressive challengers fared the worst. But Republicans never followed through on their early insistence they would spend in Scranton against Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) and abandoned the race against Rep. Lauren Underwood (IL-14) after their least preferred candidate won the GOP primary. Personally I expect these numbers to shift a bit in the Republicans favor even if 2020 is an otherwise good year for Dems. That initial instinct proved to be correct. With amazing consistency, Republican candidates outperformed private surveys by mid-single digits. Cook Political Report 2020 House Ratings As of November 2, 2020 This table is associated with the following map URL. Rep But Trump's presence atop the ballot did something else as well. Republicans Didn't Spend Significantly in 10 Races They Narrowly Lost. It will require discipline to stick to these fundamentals when polls start to drown everything else out. Cook Report shifts 12 House races, all but one toward Democrats By Joseph Choi - 10/21/20 10:43 AM EDT 315 The Cook Political Report on … The NRCC spent just $96,000 in coordinated expenditures in FL-27 and $95,000 in CA-39 — a tiny fraction of what it spent in scores of races that both parties' polls (and we) considered more competitive. • Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. Trump won 74 million votes, unquestionably driving out millions of low-propensity, right-leaning voters who would otherwise never turn out to vote for a more conventional down-ballot Republican in a midterm or off-year election. And, they won. Five Democrat-controlled seats, five Republican-controlled seats, and the Michigan seat held by Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash have all shifted to likely wins for Democrats. Ind, 0 All cycle, the NRCC, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) worked local trenches to clear fields for these recruits and, if necessary, help them get through tough primaries. 12 ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017 ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018 ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020 Had Republicans detected the true down-ballot dynamics, they could have won the House back. Cook Political Report shifted more congressional races to the left, predicting that 2020 could be an even better year for Democrats than the 2018 "blue wave." The top three most expensive House races of 2020 — in terms of both candidate and outside spending — were California's 25th District ($37.9 million), New Mexico's 2nd District ($36.7 million) and Texas's 22nd District ($34.1 million), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. After the latest update from Kern County, Valadao’s lead of 2,644 votes in the race shrank on Friday to 1,618 votes.The number of votes left to count from Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties has dwindled, the lead was enough for Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and NBC News contributor to call the race. Cook Political Report: “There have only been three federal elections in the last 100 years decided by fewer than 20 votes…But in an insult to injury for House Democrats, who have already lost a dozen incumbents to the GOP, Democrats are currently trailing by a scant six votes in Iowa’s 2nd CD and 12 votes in New York’s 22nd CD as both races head for lengthy legal fights.” Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. Dem Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 House forecast. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report made its final House forecast Monday, a day before the Nov. 3 elections, indicating that a combination of factors … Very few non-incumbent Democrats ran ahead of Biden in their districts, but one was Cameron Webb (VA-05), who touted support from sheriffs in his ads and flipped the script by accusing his GOP opponent of voting to cut police funding. We don’t talk enough about its shortcomings, not just in head-to-head, but also in figuring out what voters are really prioritizing. Public polls underestimated Republicans up and down the ballot. And, many paid the price. In January, there will be nine "Biden Republicans" and at most seven "Trump Democrats.". Ind, 15 The same was true of private polls. : But the more polls we saw, the less accurate our forecast became. The … The final FiveThirtyEight average pegged Biden's lead at 8.4 points; he won the popular vote by 4.5 points. • Dem But this time, these voters could vote directly against Trump but still vote for a more conventional Republican they liked. [CDATA[// >. Although 2020's polling errors weren't historically unprecedented in size, the industry as a whole (but especially traditional telephone pollsters) is headed for upheaval. In the end, women and minorities helped Republicans win six districts Trump failed to carry. Dem Ind, 0 But Republicans turned the tables in 2020, and it worked. These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. But after the rise of AOC, the primaries and 'defund the police,' it was easier to paint them as radical.". To be fair, no one saw a close race in TX-15 coming. 2020 House Vote Tracker | The Cook Political Report 2020 National House Vote Tracker By David Wasserman, Sophie Andrews, Leo Saenger, Lev Cohen, Ally Flinn, and Griff Tatarsky Please note that results are not yet final except where noted in the table below. Democrats are poised to retain and expand their House majority, The Cook Political Report predicts just a day ahead of the 2020 election.Cook issued its final House race predictions for the 2020 election on Monday, and all eight of its ratings changes moved in Democrats' favor. He took 47 percent, two points better than Biden's 45 percent. The current ratings for the 2020 presidential election from The Cook Political Report.Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Neither party began polling races in earnest until the late summer. 17 : But in a presidential cycle with plenty of voters who aren't immersed in the policy weeds, these attacks worked. Click on bars to see solid seats breakdown, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037, FL-26 Throughout 2020, both parties' House campaign committees (the DCCC and NRCC), as well as their affiliated Super PACs (House Majority PAC and Congressional Leadership Fund), invested tens of millions of dollars on hundreds of district-level surveys — and those polls told an even more consistent story of GOP woes than they told in 2018. The Cook Political Report has updated its outlook for 12 House races. David Wasserman. • Rep Meanwhile, of the 29 House Republican freshmen from 2018, only one wasn't a man and only one wasn't white. And, as more and more October polls showed Biden with commanding leads, it's possible that more voters went to the polls expecting Biden to win and opted for a GOP "check" against Democrats going too far left, much as in 2016. The Cook Political Report said four of the races were in Texas, three of which it changed from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" and another which it said was now a "toss up." Democrats’ odds in the race for control of the House are seeing yet another uptick, according to a new analysis from the Cook Political Report.. Three are of Cuban ancestry, two were born in South Korea and one was born in Ukraine — allowing them to personalize an anti-socialism message. Cook Political Report on Friday moved its outlook for 20 House races toward Democrats.. Why it matters: President Trump's troubles are spilling over to affect Republicans down the ballot — which could foreshadow a blue wave in November. The Parties Spent $195 Million on 30 Races that Weren't That Close,

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